【查理·芒格的投资思想】只言片语

生活总是以某种方式伤害某人,又以某种方式帮助他人。面对生活中的打击,每个人都应该积极应对。男子汉就应该这样,坦然地面对生活中的不如意。别总是抱怨,也别指望靠抱怨来解决问题。


更新历史

  • 2022.11.11:完成初稿

读后感

这本书可以理解为《原则》的精简版,读起来还是比较带感的,都是些朴实的大道理,时不时看一下,还是收获颇丰

读书笔记

随大流只会让你更靠近平均值。 Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.

预测从来不是我的强项,而且我也不依靠准确的预测来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司,并一直持有。 I’ve never been able to predict accurately. I don’t make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses and stay there.

渴望一夜暴富是相当危险的。 The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.

任何有很高佣金的地方,都非常可能出现欺骗行为。 Everywhere there is a large commission, there is a high probability of a rip-off.

知道你不知道什么事情比成为聪明人更有用。 Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.

承认无知是智慧的开始。 Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.

人们都试图变得精明,而我只想证明自己并不是在做傻事,但这比许多人想象的要困难得多。 People are trying to be smart—all I am trying to do is not to be idiotic, but it’s harder than most people think.

我的成功源自我的长期专注。 I succeeded because I have a long attention span.

静心等待将帮助你成为一名投资者,然而大多数人都处于迫不及待的状态。 It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait

我认为投资者需要正视公司的实际情况,即使你并不情愿;事实上,特别是当你不情愿这样做的时候,更要这样做。 I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn’t like it; indeed, especially when one doesn’t like it.

曾有一段时间,当时没有人愿意进场,我们却开始投资,那种感觉的确很糟糕。 We have a history when things are really horrible of wading in when no one else will

成功的投资既需要进取心又需要耐心,并且还需要准备好在机会出现时抓住它,因为在这个世界上,机会不会持续很久。 Successful investing requires this crazy combination of gumption and patience, and then being ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself, because in this world opportunities just don’t last very long.

将股票视为企业的所有权,并判断这家企业的竞争优势是否具有可持续性。 View a stock as an ownership of the business and judge the staying quality of the business in terms of its competitive advantage.

我认为,要想在木桶里抓到鱼,就得先把木桶里的水排掉。 My idea of shooting a fish in a barrel is draining the barrel first.

有时,目光短浅的股市会提供一些显而易见的投资机会,这令人难以抗拒。每当股市发生恐慌时,投资者就会争先恐后地抛售所有投资标的,而这些标的中其实有很多是能给他们带来长期收益的。投资者的这种大逃离就像放空了木桶里的水,随着股票价格一路下跌,芒格很轻易地就能发现那些鱼:被低估的优质企业。

当你有优势时再行动。你必须理解胜率,并且要坚持在胜率偏向于自己时再采取行动,这是一项准则。 Move only when you have the advantage—you have to understand the odds and have the discipline to bet only when the odds are in your favor.

你应该记住,好的投资机会是罕见的。当你的赢面比较大的时候,那就下重注。 You should remember that good ideas are rare—when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.

出人意料的好事容易接受,而让人陷入困境的却总是出人意料的坏事。 Favorable surprises are easy to handle. It’s the unfavorable surprises that cause the trouble.

芒格认为,安全边际应当根据股票的价格和公司基本面决定:价格越低,安全边际越高;公司基本面越好,安全边际越高;而股价的升高和公司基本面的恶化都会导致安全边际变薄。如果我们用合适的价格持有一只基本面良好的股票,安全边际会保护我们在长期持仓过程中不会遭受重大损失。而基本面良好的公司无论是内生性增长,还是外延式增长都会带给我们出人意料的高收益。

我们镇定下来,尽最大可能地利用好顺风和逆风,然后等待若干年后的结果。 We just keep our heads down and handle the head windsand tailwinds as best we can, and take the result after a period of years.

以划算的价格投资一家优秀企业,比以便宜的价格投资一家普通企业,其结果要好得多。 A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price.

在商业领域中,我们发现,胜出的系统通常都会在一个或几个变量方面处于极端水平,要么最大化,要么最小化,就像好事多超市的打折仓库。 In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount ware houses of Costco.

一般来说,投资是对一家企业的品质的认可,与其管理层的素质无关。然而,在少数情况下,你也可以押注于优秀的管理者身上,即使他身处一个非常普通的行业。 Averaged out, betting on the quality of a business is better than betting on the quality of management…but, very rarely, you find a manager who’s so good that you’re wise to follow him into what looks like a mediocre business.

在投资喜诗糖果公司的时候,我们并没有意识到一个好品牌的力量。后来,我们发现这家公司每年提价10%,而没有顾客会在意。这个发现也改变了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。这真的非常重要。 When we bought See’s Candy, we didn’t know the power of a good brand. Over time, we just discovered that we could raise prices 10% a year and no one cared. Learning that changed Berkshire. It was really important.

从较长的时期来看,历史早已证明,就某种程度而言,任何企业要想依照股东的意愿存活下来,其概率都是很低的。 Over the very long term, history shows that the chances of any business surviving in a manner agreeable to a company’s owners are slim at best.

微观经济学最重要的课程就是,区分技术何时会帮助你,何时会杀死你。 The great lesson in microeconomics is to discriminate between when technology is going to help you and when it’s going to kill you.

一家好企业和一家坏企业的区别在于,好企业总会产生一个又一个很容易作出的决策,而坏企业却总要作出痛苦的决策。 The difference between a good business and a bad businessis that good businesses throw up one easy decision after another. The bad businesses throw up painful decisions time after time.

银行不会自愿地约束自己,它们需要成熟的监管体系。 Banks will not rein themselves in voluntarily. They need adult supervision.

对于错综复杂的事情而言,诡计与错误总是相伴相生……对于金融机构,包括由政府运营的信贷公司,这是亘古不变的事实。在这个世界里,你不能期盼金融公司为你提供准确的数据。 Where you have complexity, by nature you can have fraud and mistakes…This will always be true of financial companies,including ones run by governments. If you want accurate numbers from financial companies, you’re in the wrong world.

聪明的人毫无例外都因为过度自信而在职业领域遭遇过重创。 Smart people aren’t exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence.

如果要想经济繁荣,我们就必须工作。我们必须让人们受制于“胡萝卜加大棒”的原则。一旦拿掉大棒,整个系统就会停止运行。你不可能通过投票就让自己富裕起来。这是一个愚蠢的想法。 If we’re going to prosper, we have to work. We have to have people subject to carrots and sticks. If you takeaway the stick the whole system won’t work. You can not vote yourself rich. It’s an idiotic idea.

美国人正在失去工作的动力,可能并不是因为他们变懒了,而是因为他们没有了对失业的恐惧。

这是我生活中的经验,如果能保持思考和阅读的习惯,你就不需要去工作了。 It’s been my experience in life, if you just keep thinking and reading, you don’t have to work.

这是一所非常棒的大学,但真正伟大的教育家当属麦当劳……我认为麦当劳在很多方面甚至超过了哈佛大学。 This is a nice college, but the really great educator is McDonald’s…. I think a lot of what goes on there is better than at Harvard.

在过去的任何一年,如果你一次都没有推翻过自己最中意的想法,那么这一年就算浪费了。 Any year that passes in which you don’t destroy one of your best loved ideas is a wasted year.

每天结束时,努力使自己比早上起床时更加睿智一些。忠诚且出色地履行自己的职责,每天进步一点点。最终,如果足够长寿,大多数人都会获取应得的回报。 Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.

在重要的学科领域掌握有价值的想法,并经常加以使用。记住要综合起来使用,而不是仅仅利用其中的某一部分。 Know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few.

加州理工学院的大部分毕业生都进入了金融行业……他们忽悠那些不如自己聪明的客户,从中挣了很多钱,这是错误的。最优秀的人才投身聚敛钱财的行当,我认为这是一种损失。 A big percentage of Caltech grads are going into finance….They’ll make a lot of money by clobbering customers who aren’t as smart as them. It’s a mistake.I look at this in terms of losses from the diversion of our best talent going into some money-grubbing exercise.

我喜欢能够坦然承认自己很愚蠢的人。我知道,如果正面承认自己的错误,我会表现得更好。这是一个非常棒的学习窍门。 I like people admitting they were complete stupid horses’asses. I know I’ll perform better if I rub my nose in my mistakes. This is a wonderful trick to learn.

一个人从不犯错,就能过上惬意的生活,但这是不切实际的。事实上,生活中的一个窍门就是要学会处理错误。不能够处理好“心理抵触”是许多人最终走向破产的常见原因。 There’s no way that you can live an adequate life without many mistakes. In fact, one trick in life is to get so you can handle mistakes. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke

我最认可爱比克泰德看待事情的态度。他认为生活中错失的每一个机会都是锻炼和学习的机遇,你要做的不是沉沦于自我怜悯之中,而是要以建设性的方式利用这些糟糕的打击。这是一个非常正确的观点。 I think the attitude of Epictetus is the best. He thought that every missed chance in life was an opportunity to behave well, every missed chance in life was an opportunity to learn something, and that your duty was not to be submerged in selfpity, but to utilize the terrible blow in constructive fashion.That is a very good idea.

在我一生中,我所知道的智者,没有一个不是在无时无刻地学习的。当你知道巴菲特及我的阅读量时,你肯定会感到震惊。我的孩子们嘲笑我,他们认为我其实就是长了两条腿的一本书。 In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time—none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads—and how much I read.My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.

如果你已经具备心智成熟的人所需的智慧水平,那么你就有能力超过那些比你聪明的人。只要从所有不同的学科领域,而不只是少数几个学科领域中汲取最关键的知识点,你就会比他们聪明得多。 If you have enough sense to become a mental adult yourself,you can run rings around people smarter than you. Just pick up key ideas from all the disciplines,not just a few, and you’re immensely wiser than they are.

在生活中,我见识过很多取得很大成就的人。虽然他们既不是最聪明的人,甚至也不是最勤奋的人,但是他们都是很善于学习的人。他们每天晚上入睡时都比起床时变得更智慧,孩子,这一点很重要,尤其在你面临着人生的长跑时。 I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up, and boy, does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you

极度专业化才是成功之道。比起理解整个世界来说,大多数人更加擅长专攻一个方面。 Extreme specialization is the way to succeed. Most people are way better off specializing than trying to understand the world.

看看这一代人,他们拥有了电子设备,能够同时处理多项任务,但我仍然可以很自信地断定他们比不上仅专注于阅读的巴菲特。如果你想拥有智慧,就要静下心来阅读。这才是获取智慧的正确途径。 Look at this generation, with all of its electronic devices and multitasking. I will confidently predict less success than Warren, who just focused on reading. If you want wisdom, you’ll get it sitting on your ass. That’s the way it comes

我们总是在不断地学习、修正和摒弃自己的理念。及时快速放弃自己原有的理念是最宝贵的品质之一。你必须让自己学会换位思考。 We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.

如果你不能比你的对手更好地反驳自己的观点,你就不配拥有这个观点。这是一项重要的思维训练。 It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline

我总是与某些人保持距离,他们对问题并不真正理解,但回答问题时却信心满满。 I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.

我认为那些同时处理多项任务的人都付出了很大代价。 I think people who multitask pay a huge price.

以经济学为例,大多数人都接受了单一模式的培训,试图采用一种方法来解决所有问题。有一句话说:“对拿锤子的人来说,看什么都像是钉子。”这种解决问题的方式是愚蠢的。 Most people are trained in one model—economics, for example—and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the saying, “To the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail.” This is a dumb way of handling problems.

我认为,极端思想体系会束缚人们的头脑,这一点是必须避免的。 Another thing I think should be avoided is extremely intense ideology because it cabbages up one’s mind.

要得到你想要的某样东西,最可靠的办法是让你自己配得上它。 The best way to get a good spouse is to deserve a good spouse.

保持理性是一种道德律令。在不该犯傻的时候千万别犯傻。 Being rational is a moral imperative. You should never be stupider than you need to be.

抵抗衰老的最佳措施就是在老之前好好生活。 The best armor of old age is a well-spent life preceding it.

在婚姻中,你不应该去寻找具有良好的外貌和性格的伴侣。你需要选择期望值较低的伴侣。 In marriage, you shouldn’t look for someone with good looks and character. You look for someone with low expectations.

职业生涯的三条规则:1.不要销售你自己都不愿意买的东西;2.不要为你不尊重和不欣赏的人工作;3.只和你喜欢的人一起工作。 Three rules for a career: 1. Don’t sell anything you wouldn’t buy yourself; 2. Don’t work for anyone you don’t respect and admire; 3. Work only with people you enjoy.

文明的最高形式就是形成一种充满强烈信任感的无缝网络——不需要什么流程,只是可靠的人彼此互相信任……在你自己的生活中,你也会同样渴望有这样充满信任的无缝网络。如果你的婚姻协议写了满满47页纸,那么我建议你还是不要结婚了。 The highest form that civilization can reach is a seamless web of deserved trust—not much procedure, just totally reliable people correctly trusting one another……In your own life what you want is a seamless web of deserved trust. And if your proposed marriage contract has forty-seven pages, I suggest you not enter.

记住路易斯·文森蒂的规则:“讲实话,你就无需时刻想着自己说过的那些谎言。” Remember Louis Vincenti’s rule: “Tell the truth, and you won’t have to remember your lies.”

长期来看,伟大文明被超越并最终黯然失色的概率是100%。因此,你应该明白文明是如何走向衰落的。 Over the long term, the eclipse rate of great civilizations being overtaken is 100%. So you know how it’s going to end.

生活总是以某种方式伤害某人,又以某种方式帮助他人。面对生活中的打击,每个人都应该积极应对。男子汉就应该这样,坦然地面对生活中的不如意。别总是抱怨,也别指望靠抱怨来解决问题。 Life is always going to hurt some people in some ways and help others. There should be more willingness to take the blows of life as they fall. That’s what manhood is, taking life as it falls. Not whining all the time and trying to fix it by whining.